How much can I safely withdraw from my savings each year in retirement?
I am 68 and about to start drawing on my retirement savings. I have heard the old 4% rule is outdated. How do I work out an amount I can take each year without running out?
✓ Accepted answer
Start by using a personalized withdrawal rate between 3% and 4% of your total portfolio value in your first year of retirement, adjusting for current interest rates and your expected lifespan.
- Recalculate annually: Instead of a fixed 4%, adjust your withdrawal based on your portfolio’s current value. This “dynamic” approach helps prevent depleting funds during long periods of market downturns.
- Sequence-of-returns risk: According to research cited by the Journal of Financial Planning, early losses in retirement are most damaging. Consider holding 2–3 years of cash or low-risk bonds to avoid selling stocks during a crash.
- Personalize the rate: If you are healthy and have no family history of longevity, you might safely start near 4%. If you expect to live into your early 90s or beyond, aim for 3% to preserve capital.
- Include Social Security: Estimate your guaranteed monthly Social Security benefit first. Your private withdrawal only needs to cover the gap between that income and your living expenses.
- Consult a professional: A fee-only financial planner can model your withdrawals against your specific risk tolerance and longevity, using tools from institutions like the Investment Company Institute.
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